The Board of analysts: the best strategy - to leave the euro zonePosted on August 18, 2011 in the "News"
On Thursday, August 18 euro is under significant pressure. By 09:00 Moscow time his rate was 1.439 dollars / euros. The euphoria of the meeting of leaders of France and Germany had passed, and now the players come to realize that it all really happened.
"The outcome of the meeting Sarkozy and Merkel was a surprise for the markets. Especially negative is the lack of progress in increasing the European Foundation for financial stability. I think that now yield spread between German Bond and Spanish and Italian bonds will grow, no matter what the ECB did.
Pressure from the sellers will increase. And the likelihood that the eurozone will continue to be in the same composition as that of now, I think, is becoming less and less. And the growth of spread is said about it, "- commented to Bloomberg occurred senior economist for Global Markets Wells Fargo Securities, Jay Bryson.
"The meeting Sarkozy and Merkel gave a pretty negative market momentum. Markets have not heard anything from what was expected. No Eurobonds, at least for now. No expansion of the financial foundation. And instead - a tax on financial transactions. This was not expected, so the markets in turmoil. Bank shares fall, no details yet, but just in case investors are selling. Of course, sounded and a positive: Sarkozy and Merkel talked about a closer cooperation of governments the euro zone, the creation of a new economic council, which has been dubbed an economic government. It will harmonize tax policies, balanced budgets and more stringent financial regulations. All this is good, but it is - the medium term. A resolution of this crisis for almost nothing has been done ", - considers the economic editor of Bloomberg, David Tweed.--------Need a job? Look here: work in St Petersburg welder watch and much more.--------But not all experts are so pessimistic. Director of the Institute for International Economics Fred Bergsten believes that the main problem for Europe is that Europeans have created economic and monetary union in which monetary union clearly prevails over the economic. "They have a common currency and monetary integration is complete, but there is no common fiscal policy, nor the institutions that effectively coordinate and direct economic policy. Now they have begun to move in the right direction, and Sarkozy and Merkel have done fairly drastic steps. If they pass this way to the end, Europe will not have to every time an emergency basis to look for ways to rescue another member of the bankruptcy. So I do not think that their meeting was inconclusive. Europe is clearly moving towards fiscal union, slowly but steadily ", - the expert believes.
At the same time preserving the status quo is concerned, oddly enough, Germany. "This country gets two huge benefits from the existence of the euro area. Firstly, political. After all, a united Europe was a political project to eliminate the possibility of new wars on the continent after millennia of military conflict. And Germany was originally one of the leaders who supported this project. Secondly, Germany - the world's largest exporter with the largest asset and the trade balance is still a competitive economy. If Germany remained the Deutsche mark, its currency has already risen to 30-40%, and the country would lose its competitiveness. And with the euro, Germany remains competitive exporter, because the euro has grown quite a bit. Therefore, in Germany, such high economic growth, so it remains an island of prosperity in the middle of Europe's economic stagnation ", - stressed Fred Bergsten.--------Want to know the latest news in Yekaterinburg. Come to our portal.--------Thus the situation in the euro zone remains mixed. Plans designated leaders, very much, but they are of strategic nature. To achieve them requires a lot of time, and the euro area is bursting at the seams right now. Therefore it is better to get rid of the euro, and instead buy a conservative exchange, such as the Japanese yen. Consider a pair of Euro / Japanese yen from a technical point of view:
Currently, the euro / yen consolidated in a broad triangle (2-3). This may indicate two divergent possibilities: either the "bulls" are trying to seize the initiative and launch a trend, or "bears" are preparing a new attack. To win customers through local breakout indicates a downtrend (3) upwards, which in the medium term will couple to mark 117.7 yen / euro. But this scenario is very unlikely. Trend is likely to strengthen the Japanese currency will remain: the pair will go down. Evidence of this will break the support line (2). The goal for quotations in this case will mark 106 yen / euro.
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